South Africa’s 2-0 series against Sri Lanka has catapulted them to the top of the WTC standings. To secure a place in the final, they only need to win one of their two Tests against Pakistan in the home series starting later this month. A 1-1 result would leave them at 61.11 per cent, with only one between India and Australia able to overtake them.
If both Tests were tied, South Africa would finish at 58.33. If India beat Australia 3-2 and Australia won both Tests in Sri Lanka, then both Australia (60.53) and India (58.77) could top that score. If South Africa were to lose the series 1-0, then it would have to hope that Australia does not win more than two of its remaining five Tests, or that India does not get more than a win and a draw from its remaining three Tests in Australia.
Sri Lanka
Percentage: 45.45, matches remaining: Aus (2 at home)
Even if Sri Lanka were to win both Tests against Australia, they would only finish with 53.85, which would leave them at the mercy of other results, as South Africa and one between India and Australia can top that score: India would need a win and a draw, while Australia would need two. For both teams to finish under 53.85, Australia would need to win the series 2-1, with two draws. To finish under 53.85, South Africa would have to lose both Tests against Pakistan.
India
Percentage: 57.29, matches remaining: Aus (3 away)
To be certain of a place in the final, India need two wins and a draw in the three remaining Tests in Australia. That would take them to 60.53 per cent and guarantee them at least second place behind South Africa, as Australia can only finish at 57.02 even with a 2-0 win in Sri Lanka. If India were to win the series 3-2, they would finish at 58.77 and Australia could still finish below them if they beat Sri Lanka 1-0. If India were to lose 2-3, then they would finish at 53.51, in which case Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa could overtake them. To qualify with that score, they would need South Africa to lose both Tests against Pakistan and hope Australia get at least a draw in Sri Lanka.
Australia
Percentage: 60.71, matches remaining: Ind (3 home Tests), SL (2 away)
Australia need two wins in the remaining three Tests against India to secure a place in the final. In that case (a 3-2 series win), even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would finish at 55.26, higher than India’s 53.51 and Sri Lanka’s 53.85. This would guarantee them at least second place, behind South Africa.
However, should they lose 2-3, India would rise to 58.77, in which case Australia would have to win both Sri Lanka Tests to overtake India. Otherwise, they would have to hope South Africa do not get more than a draw against Pakistan, which would leave them at 55.56; Australia can overcome this with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.
Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, remaining series: SA (2 away), WI (2 at home)
Pakistan have only a very remote mathematical chance, which also depends on South Africa losing an over-rate point. Even with four wins out of four, Pakistan would finish at 52.38, marginally below South Africa’s 52.78. If South Africa were to lose a point, it would drop to 52.08. Thus, with several other results in their favour, it is still mathematically possible for Pakistan to finish second behind Australia or India. In all probability, however, Pakistan is out.
New Zealand, England, Bangladesh and the West Indies are out of the race for a place in the final.
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